Additional Nodal Metastases

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Our additional nodal metastases nomogram is a tool designed to estimate the likelihood that cancer has spread beyond the sentinel lymph nodes (the first nodes to which the cancer would spread in the breast and underarm region) to other non-sentinel nodes under the arm. It is appropriate for individual patients with primary invasive breast cancer that has already spread to the sentinel lymph nodes, but is not appropriate for patients in whom enlarged metastatic nodes could be felt on physical examination. It is also not appropriate for patients who have already had systemic therapy (chemotherapy or hormone therapy) or radiation therapy for this breast cancer. This tool has been externally validated at more than 20 institutions across Europe and North America (see Supporting Publications) and the original study was recognized as the most cited paper in 2007 by the Annals of Surgical Oncology.

Results produced by this tool are based on data from patients treated at MSK, a large research institution with surgeons who perform a high volume of breast cancer procedures. All results must be understood in the context of each patient’s specific treatment plan. Patients and caregivers using this tool should discuss the result with the patient’s physician.

To gather the information required to use this nomogram, use our worksheet.

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All fields are required unless noted optional
Was a frozen section analysis performed on the sentinel lymph node biopsy? (This need not have been the method that detected cancer in the sentinel lymph nodes.)
What is frozen section analysis?
Frozen section analysis is a pathologic laboratory procedure to perform rapid microscopic analysis of a specimen.
cm (0.1 to 9)
What are type and grade?
Tumor type and grade are routinely noted in the pathology report. A tumor is either ductal or lobular. Ductal and lobular are the most common growth patterns of breast cancer. Grade refers to the extent of abnormality of the cells when viewed under the microscope. Nuclear grades I to III refer to variation in the size and shape of the nuclei of the tumor cells.
nodes (1 to 7)
More on methods of detection
Pathologists detect cancer cells in the sentinel lymph nodes using different staining methods. The method used -- frozen section, routine histopathology (Routine H&E), H&E stains of serial sections (Serial H&E), or immunohistochemistry (IHC) -- is stated on the pathology report.
nodes (0 to 14)
Was lymphovascular invasion or permeation (tumor cells seen in the blood or lymphatic vessels) listed on your pathology report?
Is your primary tumor multifocal?
What is multifocality?
Breast cancers that grow as separate groups of tumor cells rather than as one unified tumor mass are described as being “multifocal.”
What is ER?
ER stands for estrogen receptor. Breast cancer cells that are ER-positive have estrogen receptors on their surface. ER-positive tumors can be treated with endocrine therapies that prevent estrogen from fueling the cancer cells. ER-negative tumors don’t have these receptors on their surface.

Supporting Publications

Probability of Additional Nodal Metastases

Probability that cancer will be seen in additional, non-sentinel lymph nodes under the arm

Source publication listed first, followed by selected external validation studies

Van Zee KJ, Manasseh DM, Bevilacqua JL, Boolbol SK, Fey JV, Tan LK, Borgen PI, Cody HS 3rd, Kattan MW. A nomogram for predicting the likelihood of additional nodal metastases in breast cancer patients with a positive sentinel node biopsy. Ann Surg Oncol. 2003 Dec;10(10):1140-51. doi: 10.1245/aso.2003.03.015. PMID: 14654469.

Degnim AC, Reynolds C, Pantvaidya G, Zakaria S, Hoskin T, Barnes S, Roberts MV, Lucas PC, Oh K, Koker M, Sabel MS, Newman LA. Nonsentinel node metastasis in breast cancer patients: assessment of an existing and a new predictive nomogram. Am J Surg. 2005 Oct;190(4):543-50. doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2005.06.008. PMID: 16164917.

Soni NK, Carmalt HL, Gillett DJ, Spillane AJ. Evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for prediction of non-sentinel lymph node positivity. Eur J Surg Oncol. 2005 Nov;31(9):958-64. doi: 10.1016/j.ejso.2005.04.011. Epub 2005 Jun 23. PMID: 15979270.

Smidt ML, Kuster DM, van der Wilt GJ, Thunnissen FB, Van Zee KJ, Strobbe LJ. Can the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram predict the likelihood of nonsentinel lymph node metastases in breast cancer patients in the Netherlands? Ann Surg Oncol. 2005 Dec;12(12):1066-72. doi: 10.1245/ASO.2005.07.022. Epub 2005 Oct 26. PMID: 16244802.

Lambert LA, Ayers GD, Hwang RF, Hunt KK, Ross MI, Kuerer HM, Singletary SE, Babiera GV, Ames FC, Feig B, Lucci A, Krishnamurthy S, Meric-Bernstam F. Validation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting nonsentinel lymph node metastases after a positive sentinel node biopsy. Ann Surg Oncol. 2006 Mar;13(3):310-20. doi: 10.1245/ASO.2006.03.078. Epub 2006 Feb 10. PMID: 16463073.

Cripe MH, Beran LC, Liang WC, Sickle-Santanello BJ. The likelihood of additional nodal disease following a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy in breast cancer patients: validation of a nomogram. Am J Surg. 2006 Oct;192(4):484-7. doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2006.06.016. PMID: 16978955.

Ponzone R, Maggiorotto F, Mariani L, Jacomuzzi ME, Magistris A, Mininanni P, Biglia N, Sismondi P. Comparison of two models for the prediction of nonsentinel node metastases in breast cancer. Am J Surg. 2007 Jun;193(6):686-92. doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2006.09.031. PMID: 17512277.

Unal B, Gur AS, Kayiran O, Johnson R, Ahrendt G, Bonaventura M, Soran A. Models for predicting non-sentinel lymph node positivity in sentinel node positive breast cancer: the importance of scoring system. Int J Clin Pract. 2008 Nov;62(11):1785-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1742-1241.2008.01887.x. PMID: 19143863.

Pal A, Provenzano E, Duffy SW, Pinder SE, Purushotham AD. A model for predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastatic disease when the sentinel lymph node is positive. Br J Surg. 2008 Mar;95(3):302-9. doi: 10.1002/bjs.5943. PMID: 17876750.

Ramjeesingh R, Quan ML, Gardner S, Holloway CM. Prediction of involvement of sentinel and nonsentinel lymph nodes in a Canadian population with breast cancer. Can J Surg. 2009 Feb;52(1):23-30. PMID: 19234648; PMCID: PMC2637641.

Amanti C, Lombardi A, Maggi S, Moscaroli A, Lo Russo M, Maglio R, Provenza G, Romano C, Pezzatini M, Scopinaro F, Di Stefano D. Is complete axillary dissection necessary for all patients with positive findings on sentinel lymph node biopsy? Validation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting the likelihood of a non-sentinel lymph node. Tumori. 2009 Mar-Apr;95(2):153-5. doi: 10.1016/s1359-6349(08)70669-4. PMID: 19579859.

van la Parra RF, Ernst MF, Bevilacqua JL, Mol SJ, Van Zee KJ, Broekman JM, Bosscha K. Validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of nonsentinel lymph node metastases in breast cancer patients with a positive sentinel node biopsy: validation of the MSKCC breast nomogram. Ann Surg Oncol. 2009 May;16(5):1128-35. doi: 10.1245/s10434-009-0359-y. Epub 2009 Feb 28. PMID: 19252954.

Coutant C, Olivier C, Lambaudie E, Fondrinier E, Marchal F, Guillemin F, Seince N, Thomas V, Levêque J, Barranger E, Darai E, Uzan S, Houvenaeghel G, Rouzier R. Comparison of models to predict nonsentinel lymph node status in breast cancer patients with metastatic sentinel lymph nodes: a prospective multicenter study. J Clin Oncol. 2009 Jun 10;27(17):2800-8. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2008.19.7418. Epub 2009 Apr 6. PMID: 19349546.

Gur AS, Unal B, Ozbek U, Ozmen V, Aydogan F, Gokgoz S, Gulluoglu BM, Aksaz E, Ozbas S, Baskan S, Koyuncu A, Soran A; Turkish Federation of Breast Disease Associations Protocol MF08-01 investigators. Validation of breast cancer nomograms for predicting the non-sentinel lymph node metastases after a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy in a multi-center study. Eur J Surg Oncol. 2010 Jan;36(1):30-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ejso.2009.05.007. Epub 2009 Jun 16. PMID: 19535217.

Hessman CJ, Naik AM, Kearney NM, Jensen AJ, Diggs BS, Troxell ML, Vetto JT. Comparative validation of online nomograms for predicting nonsentinel lymph node status in sentinel lymph node-positive breast cancer. Arch Surg. 2011 Sep;146(9):1035-40. doi: 10.1001/archsurg.2011.201. PMID: 21931000.

Derici S, Sevinc A, Harmancioglu O, Saydam S, Kocdor M, Aksoy S, Egeli T, Canda T, Ellidokuz H, Derici S. Validation of three breast cancer nomograms and a new formula for predicting non-sentinel lymph node status. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2012;13(12):6181-5. doi: 10.7314/apjcp.2012.13.12.6181. PMID: 23464427.

Sasada T, Murakami S, Kataoka T, Ohara M, Ozaki S, Okada M, Ohdan H. Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram to predict the risk of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in Japanese breast cancer patients. Surg Today. 2012 Feb;42(3):245-9. doi: 10.1007/s00595-011-0088-2. Epub 2011 Dec 14. PMID: 22167482.

Yeniay L, Carti E, Karaca C, Zekioglu O, Yararbas U, Yilmaz R, Kapkac M. A new and simple predictive formula for non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with positive sentinel lymph nodes, and validation of 3 different nomograms in Turkish breast cancer patients. Breast Care (Basel). 2012 Oct;7(5):397-402. doi: 10.1159/000338844. PMID: 24647780; PMCID: PMC3518942.

Qiu PF, Liu JJ, Wang YS, Yang GR, Liu YB, Sun X, Wang CJ, Zhang ZP. Risk factors for sentinel lymph node metastasis and validation study of the MSKCC nomogram in breast cancer patients. Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2012 Nov;42(11):1002-7. doi: 10.1093/jjco/hys150. PMID: 23100610.

Al-Masri M, Darwazeh G, El-Ghanem M, Hamdan B, Sughayer M. Assessment of an existing and modified model for predicting non sentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with positive sentinel node biopsy. Gulf J Oncolog. 2013 Jan;1(13):15-22. PMID: 23339977.

Chue KM, Yong WS, Thike AA, Ahmed SS, Li HH, Wong CY, Ho GH, Madhukumar P, Tan BK, Ong KW, Tan PH. Predicting the likelihood of additional lymph node metastasis in sentinel lymph node positive breast cancer: validation of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Centre (MSKCC) nomogram. J Clin Pathol. 2014 Feb;67(2):112-9. doi: 10.1136/jclinpath-2013-201524. Epub 2013 Sep 18. PMID: 24048026.

Kuo YL, Chen WC, Yao WJ, Cheng L, Hsu HP, Lai HW, Kuo SJ, Chen DR, Chang TW. Validation of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in sentinel lymph node positive breast cancer patients an international comparison. Int J Surg. 2013;11(7):538-43. doi: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2013.05.005. Epub 2013 May 22. PMID: 23707626.

Woods JF, De Marchi JA, Lowery AJ, Hill AD. Validation of a nomogram predicting sentinel lymph node status in melanoma in an Irish population. Ir J Med Sci. 2015 Dec;184(4):769-73. doi: 10.1007/s11845-014-1166-4. Epub 2014 Jul 6. PMID: 24997756.

Bi X, Wang Y, Li M, Chen P, Zhou Z, Liu Y, Zhao T, Zhang Z, Wang C, Sun X, Qiu P. Validation of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in sentinel lymph node-positive breast-cancer patients. Onco Targets Ther. 2015 Feb 23;8:487-93. doi: 10.2147/OTT.S78903. PMID: 25750542; PMCID: PMC4348057.

Bertozzi S, Londero AP, Giacomuzzi F, Angione V, Carbone A, Petri R, Bernardi S. Applicability of two different validated models to predict axillary non-sentinel lymph node status by sentinel node biopsy in a single Italian center. Breast Cancer. 2015 Jul;22(4):350-5. doi: 10.1007/s12282-013-0485-z. Epub 2013 Jul 6. PMID: 23832256.